From Prediction to Prescription: Strategies for Real-Time Decision-Making and the Next Best Action
In this compelling fireside chat, Chris Wiggins, Chief Data Scientist at The New York Times, and Ben Wodecki, Junior Editor at AI Business, shift the focus from predictive to prescriptive modeling. While traditional approaches emphasize forecasting outcomes in the absence of intervention, this discussion underscores the transformative power of prescribing the next best action. This shift demands both a specific toolset and a strategic mindset.
The toolset centers on a KPI-driven approach, where success metrics align everyone from the CEO to individual contributors. Establishing and understanding the right KPIs enables organizations to drive impactful decisions through product and design moves. This alignment is crucial for ensuring that everyone understands why a particular KPI is critical and how it can be influenced.
Paired with this toolset is a mindset rooted in rigorous methodologies. The foundation starts with basic A/B testing, a concept dating back to R.A. Fisher’s work on causality through randomization. While often seen as the initial step, this practice is just the beginning. The subsequent step involves targeting, where learning an optimal strategy from A/B test results necessitates tracking user information (context "x"), the action taken (reaction "a"), and the subsequent response (KPI "y").
Advancing further, we encounter contextual bandits—algorithms that learn the best action for each individual in real-time, thus optimizing personalization and overall performance. At The New York Times, we've successfully implemented both "slow" learning and "fast" learning paradigms to align product and business teams, driving up KPIs through strategic, data-driven decisions.
Join us to explore how these advanced prescriptive strategies can revolutionize real-time decision-making, offering actionable insights and fostering a culture of continuous improvement. Whether you're an AI practitioner or a business leader, this session will provide you with the tools and mindset needed to excel in the ever-evolving landscape of AI-driven solutions.?